Most of these needs can be classed as either achievement, affiliation, or power.
Actuarials showed moderate to good predictive accuracy, and a combination of static and stable risk factors Static and Stable significantly improved the predictive power for sexual reoffense. Therefore, these factors are of particular significance to assessors and treatment providers.
In addition, risk assessments and the determination of treatment gains, or the lack thereof, a central concern for decision makers, who need to balance the interests of the offender, the community, and potential future victims.
Dynamic risk factors, therefore, are criminogenic needs, which do not only contribute to estimates of future risk but also represent goals for treatment and general risk management. These findings led to the development of the Stable and the Stable, specialized tools designed to assess and track changes in dynamic risk status.
Both, the Stable and the Stable made a significant incremental contribution to most recidivism types. To be a "real dynamic predictor" a change of the predictor variable should be proven to be linked to a change in risk.
However, this would require the variable to be measured at least at 2 points in time. However, since there were only six recidivists the authors recommended treating their results with caution.
A factor analysis revealed 3 underlying factors: Moreover, the total dynamic change of the scale was related to risk as the greater the change the lower the recidivism rate.
Comorbid psychiatric disorders may also represent dynamic risk variables in sexual offenders. Sexual deviance, for example, can not only be conceptualised as a dynamic risk factor by a dimensional approach, but may also fulfil categorical diagnostic criteria of a paraphilia American Psychiatric Association, Of course, these findings do not necessarily mean nor prove a distinct psychiatric disorder is related to increased risk.
For example, Hanson and Bussiere found that the diagnosis of a personality disorder or alcohol use during the offense could only be found to be related to general, but not to sexual and non sexual violent recidivism. However, an antisocial orientention or psychopathy was consistently reported to be linked to all types of recidivism in sexual offenders.
Only some clinical diagnoses have yet been investigated as regards to their possible risk relevance in sexual offenders. There has been, for example, research on the predictive power of clinical diagnoses of pedophilia and sexual sadism.
These studies tend to find that clinical diagnoses of pedophilia and sexual sadism do not add predictive power, likely due to the difficulties inherent in making such diagnoses.
In the present study, therefore, we analysed the utility of clinical psychiatric diagnoses for the prediction of risk in child sexual offenders. In a prospective longitudinal research design we were particularly interested in the predictive power of diagnosed mental disorders when the established static and dynamic risk factors were controlled for.
Subjects The sample was comprised by male child molesters with a Category "A" sexual offense with a minor under the age of 14 according to the Static coding rules.
All offenders were serving prison sentences at time of assessment. Assessments were done between and Criminal history and recidivism information was obtained from the computerized data base of the Austrian Ministry of Internal Affairs on August 1, The average follow-up time was 6.
Mean age at time of release was No interrater reliability, however, was assessed for clinical diagnoses.
This procedure is commonly used to examine the predictive accuracy of binary decisions.
In order to test predictive accuracy and incremental validity of relevant variables, we also performed Cox regression survival analyses. Cox regression estimates relative risk ratios associated with one or more predictor variables from data with unequal follow-up times.
Results Descriptive statistics Table 1 shows the prevalence of paraphilias and personality disorders in the sample. At least one paraphilia was diagnosed in As expected, the most common diagnosis was pedophilia The diagnosis of a cluster B personality disorder was given most often Prevalence of paraphilias and personality disorders lifetime in the child molester sample Diagnoses.Power and Leadership: An Influence Process Fred C.
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